The Ryan Plan

Economics Comments Off
Apr 132011

As I have pointed out before, a bipartisan group of ten former CEA chairs (including your humble blog host) has endorsed the Bowles-Simpson commission report as a starting point for dealing with the long-run fiscal imbalance.  So readers might like to know that Bowles and Simpson themselves have called the Ryan plan a positive step.

If you want to learn more about the Ryan plan, you can look at this side-by-side comparison of two plans or read this CBO report

CBO makes clear that it believes there are substantial budgetary savings in the Ryan plan, but to a large extent these are because “the government’s contribution [to Medicare] would grow more slowly than health care costs, leaving more for beneficiaries to pay.”  Many on the left view such a change in entitlements as too draconian, but they have not offered a real alternative.  If they did, it would have to include substantial, broad-based tax increases, which those on the right would view as draconian.

That is, the choice we face is between historically high taxes (the left’s unspoken preference) and a fundamental rethinking of the social safety net (such as the plan proposed by Congressman Ryan).

Brad DeLong objects to my recent NY Times column by displaying some Tax Policy Center data that, he says, shows the Bowles-Simpson tax plan is hard on the poor and easy on the rich.  Progressives, he concludes, should oppose the plan.

The problem, however, is the benchmark used in this particular table: current law as of 2015.  Under current law, all of the Bush tax cuts expire, and millions of new taxpayers are hit by the AMT.  That is an outcome that has never been in effect and that neither political party endorses.  It is an artifact of legislative history.

A better benchmark, as noted by Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center, is current policyHere are those results.  The implication is exactly the opposite.  All income groups take a hit, particularly those at the top of the distribution.

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